Real data
Projected World Cup Bracket
Round of 32 → Final · projected from 10,000 simulations
10,000 simulationsbracket: approved-source
Approved-source bracket
Round-of-32 matchups and played scores come from an approved source (openfootball), reconciled against the group results — not official FIFA data. Advancement is model-projected; drawn matches stay projected because the penalty-shootout winner isn't in the source.
Champion probability
From the precomputed tournament simulation. Tap a team for its path.
| Team | Champion | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 40.6% | 56.4% | |
| 22.5% | 43.2% | |
| 6.3% | 11.8% | |
| 5.4% | 11.3% | |
| 5.1% | 10.1% | |
| 3.4% | 10.0% | |
| 3.2% | 13.8% | |
| 3.1% | 9.8% | |
| 2.9% | 8.8% | |
| 2.4% | 6.7% | |
| 2.3% | 5.9% | |
| 1.1% | 4.0% | |
| 0.8% | 4.3% | |
| 0.5% | 2.2% | |
| 0.4% | 1.9% |
Current stage: Round of 32 · Open slots: 2
confirmedprojectedopen· Tap any team to see its path
Round of 3216 matches
#12–0Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group A
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group E
Mexico advanced
#22–0Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group B
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group J
Switzerland advanced
#32–0Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group D
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group B
United States advanced
#41–1pens 3–4Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group E
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group D
Paraguay advanced
#52–2a.e.t.Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group G
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group I
Belgium advanced
#63–0Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group I
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group F
France advanced
#71–0Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group K
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group L
Colombia advanced
#82–1Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group L
confirmed100%
3rd place — Group K
England advanced
#92–1Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group C
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group F
Brazil advanced
#101–1pens 2–3Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group F
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group C
Morocco advanced
#113–0Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group H
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group J
Spain advanced
#121–1a.e.t.Played
confirmed100%
Winner Group J
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group H
Argentina advanced
#130–1Played
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group A
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group B
Canada advanced
#141–1pens 2–4Played
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group D
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group G
Egypt advanced
#151–2Played
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group E
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group I
Norway advanced
#162–1Played
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group K
confirmed100%
Runner-up Group L
Portugal advanced
Round of 168 matches
#1
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #1
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #2
#2
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #3
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #4
#3
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #5
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #6
#4
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #7
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #8
#5
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #9
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #10
#60–0a.e.t.Played
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #11
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #12
Spain advanced
#7
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #13
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #14
#8
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #15
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 32 #16
Quarter-finals4 matches
#1
projected55%
Winner Round of 16 #1
projected67%
Winner Round of 16 #2
#24–6Played
projected60%
Winner Round of 16 #3
projected64%
Winner Round of 16 #4
England advanced
#3
projected51%
Winner Round of 16 #5
confirmed100%
Winner Round of 16 #6
#4
projected52%
Winner Round of 16 #7
projected76%
Winner Round of 16 #8
Semi-finals2 matches
#1
open33%
TBD
Winner Quarter-finals #1
projected54%
Winner Quarter-finals #2
#21–0Played
projected61%
Winner Quarter-finals #3
projected58%
Winner Quarter-finals #4
Spain advanced
Final1 matches
#1
open43%
TBD
Winner Semi-finals #1
projected56%
Winner Semi-finals #2