Who makes the cut?
See who made the cut — and the road through the Round of 32.
Round of 32
The knockout field is set — projected first-round matchups.
Round-of-32 matchups and played scores come from an approved source (openfootball), reconciled against the group results — not official FIFA data. Advancement is model-projected; drawn matches stay projected because the penalty-shootout winner isn't in the source.
What matters today
24 teams are through and the Round of 32 bracket is set. Open the bracket to see the next matchups.
Tournament forecast
Tournament forecast — title probabilities
Simulation based. Champion / final / semi-final chances from the Monte Carlo run.
| # | Team | Grp | Champion | Final | Semi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | H | 40.6% | 56.4% | 61.4% |
| 2 | 🏴England | L | 22.5% | 43.2% | 53.7% |
| 3 | 🇵🇹Portugal | K | 6.3% | 11.8% | 57.8% |
| 4 | 🇲🇦Morocco | C | 5.4% | 11.3% | 18.4% |
| 5 | 🇧🇷Brazil | C | 5.1% | 10.1% | 20.2% |
| 6 | 🇫🇷France | I | 3.4% | 10.0% | 13.7% |
| 7 | 🇧🇪Belgium | G | 3.2% | 13.8% | 18.6% |
| 8 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | B | 3.1% | 9.8% | 24.3% |
| 9 | 🇺🇸United States | D | 2.9% | 8.8% | 32.8% |
| 10 | 🇲🇽Mexico | A | 2.4% | 6.7% | 32.7% |
| 11 | 🇨🇴Colombia | K | 2.3% | 5.9% | 14.0% |
| 12 | 🇪🇬Egypt | G | 1.1% | 4.0% | 16.6% |
| 13 | 🇳🇴Norway | I | 0.8% | 4.3% | 11.9% |
| 14 | 🇨🇦Canada | B | 0.5% | 2.2% | 13.7% |
| 15 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | D | 0.4% | 1.9% | 10.3% |
| 16 | 🇿🇦South Africa | A | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Third-place race
Eight of twelve third-placed teams advance. The cutline is where qualification ends.
Third-place race — eight of twelve third-place teams qualify
Probability of qualifying as a best third. Bubble teams shaded. Third-place projections depend on official ranking rules.
Eight of twelve third-placed teams advance. The cutline is where qualification ends.
Group projections
12 groups
Group A
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group B
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group C
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group D
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group E
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group F
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group G
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group H
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group I
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group J
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group K
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Group L
Qualify1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed
Scenario explorer
the final group-stage breakdown — what each team needed
What does this team need?
Deterministic enumeration of every remaining-result combination for the group. Projected, not confirmed.
Model accuracy
Model accuracy
Predictions are frozen before kickoff and scored against the real result — proper scoring (Brier / log-loss), not win/lose.
These are group-stage predictions — knockout matches are not yet evaluated.
| bucket | n | predicted | observed | gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–40% | 3 | 38% | 33% | 5% |
| 40–60% | 9 | 49% | 33% | 16% |
| 60–80% | 5 | 70% | 100% | 30% |
| 80–100% | 1 | 83% | 100% | 17% |
Sample size is still too small: these values are not a full calibration read.
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