THE CUTLINE.

Know who’s in, who’s out, and what needs to happen.

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Manual CSV data active.

Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Last result import: 6/23/2026, 3:28:10 PM · last simulation: 6/23/2026, 3:28:10 PM.

Ratings are model-derived from public ranking inputs, not official team strength.

Last simulation · Jun 23, 03:28 PM10,000 simulationsbracket: placeholder

What matters today

Last simulation Jun 23, 03:28 PM · run-2026-10000-3b4d5901

Biggest swing match

Portugal v Uzbekistan

Group K · swings qualification by 62%

Most at risk

Turkey

Only 15% to qualify (Group D)

Strongest favourite

England 81%

to beat Ghana

Most uncertain

Panama v Croatia

Too close to call · 26% draw

Scenario of the day

Colombia qualify automatically with a win over DR Congo.

From the scenario engine — deterministic.

Today's matches

4 fixtures

Group K05:00 PM

🇵🇹PortugalvUzbekistan🇺🇿

69%

Portugal win

20%

Draw

11%

Uzbekistan win

Confidence 30 · LowScenario impactLikely 2-0 / 1-0

Why: Portugal the stronger side — expected goals 2.2 to 0.8 · Swings auto-qualification by 62%.

Group L08:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandvGhana🇬🇭

81%

England win

14%

Draw

Ghana win

Confidence 30 · LowScenario impactLikely 2-0 / 3-0

Why: England the stronger side — expected goals 2.7 to 0.6 · Swings auto-qualification by 51%.

Group L11:00 PM

🇵🇦PanamavCroatia🇭🇷

19%

Panama win

26%

Draw

55%

Croatia win

Confidence 30 · LowScenario impactLikely 1-1 / 0-1

Why: Croatia the stronger side — expected goals 1.7 to 1.0 · Swings auto-qualification by 48%.

Group K02:00 AM

🇨🇴ColombiavDR Congo🇨🇩

58%

Colombia win

25%

Draw

17%

DR Congo win

Confidence 30 · LowScenario impactLikely 1-1 / 2-0

Why: Colombia the stronger side — expected goals 1.8 to 0.9 · Swings auto-qualification by 57%.

Scenario explorer

the strongest feature

What does this team need?

Deterministic enumeration of every remaining-result combination for the group. Projected, not confirmed.

Tournament forecast

Tournament forecast — title probabilities

Simulation based. Champion / final / semi-final chances from the Monte Carlo run.

Team	Grp	Champion	Final	Semi
🇪🇸 Spain	H	16.6%	28.1%	41.5%
🇦🇷 Argentina	J	16.3%	24.5%	34.7%
🇫🇷 France	I	8.8%	14.8%	23.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	L	8.2%	13.9%	22.9%
🇧🇷 Brazil	C	6.7%	14.3%	27.1%
🇳🇱 Netherlands	F	5.7%	11.8%	22.5%
🇵🇹 Portugal	K	5.3%	9.8%	18.6%
🇧🇪 Belgium	G	4.9%	10.3%	22.1%
🇲🇦 Morocco	C	4.9%	9.8%	18.6%
🇩🇪 Germany	E	4.2%	9.6%	17.2%
🇲🇽 Mexico	A	3.1%	8.4%	20.8%
🇭🇷 Croatia	L	2.5%	5.2%	13.4%
🇨🇴 Colombia	K	2.3%	5.1%	11.6%
🇺🇸 United States	D	1.8%	5.5%	14.4%
🇯🇵 Japan	F	1.4%	4.2%	11.9%
🇨🇭 Switzerland	B	1.1%	3.1%	8.2%

Most likely final: Argentina v Spain (6.5%) · Spain v France (3.9%) · England v Spain (3.5%)

Third-place race

Third-place race — eight of twelve third-place teams qualify

Probability of qualifying as a best third. Bubble teams shaded. Third-place projections depend on official ranking rules.

#	Team	Grp	As best third	Any route
1	🇸🇪 Sweden	F	70%	94%
2	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	C	68%	82%
3	🇸🇳 Senegal	I	55%	55%
4	🇩🇿 Algeria	J	49%	82%
5	🇵🇾 Paraguay	D	45%	73%
6	🇬🇭 Ghana	L	40%	64%
7	🇶🇦 Qatar	B	39%	39%
8	🇪🇬 Egypt	G	34%	100%
9	🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	32%	33%
10	🇨🇩 DR Congo	K	28%	57%
11	🇮🇷 Iran	G	28%	72%
12	🇦🇹 Austria	J	27%	95%

Group projections

12 groups

Group A

Team

Qualify

🇲🇽Mexico94%/6%

100%

🇰🇷South Korea6%/69%

93%

🇿🇦South Africa0%/18%

21%

🇨🇿Czechia0%/7%

21%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group B

Team

Qualify

🇨🇦Canada55%/45%

100%

🇨🇭Switzerland45%/54%

100%

🇶🇦Qatar0%/0%

39%

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina0%/0%

33%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group C

Team

Qualify

🇧🇷Brazil61%/26%

100%

🇲🇦Morocco36%/62%

100%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland2%/11%

82%

🇭🇹Haiti0%/0%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group D

Team

Qualify

🇺🇸United States99%/1%

100%

🇦🇺Australia1%/71%

93%

🇵🇾Paraguay0%/28%

73%

🇹🇷Turkey0%/0%

15%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group E

Team

Qualify

🇩🇪Germany100%/0%

100%

🇨🇮Ivory Coast0%/80%

93%

🇪🇨Ecuador0%/7%

25%

🇨🇼Curacao0%/13%

17%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group F

Team

Qualify

🇳🇱Netherlands61%/38%

100%

🇯🇵Japan31%/46%

100%

🇸🇪Sweden9%/16%

94%

🇹🇳Tunisia0%/0%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group G

Team

Qualify

🇪🇬Egypt47%/19%

100%

🇧🇪Belgium32%/54%

94%

🇮🇷Iran21%/23%

72%

🇳🇿New Zealand0%/4%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group H

Team

Qualify

🇪🇸Spain83%/12%

100%

🇨🇻Cape Verde2%/47%

62%

🇺🇾Uruguay15%/9%

46%

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia0%/32%

39%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group I

Team

Qualify

🇫🇷France88%/12%

100%

🇳🇴Norway12%/88%

100%

🇸🇳Senegal0%/0%

55%

🇮🇶Iraq0%/0%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group J

Team

Qualify

🇦🇷Argentina100%/0%

100%

🇦🇹Austria0%/68%

95%

🇩🇿Algeria0%/32%

82%

🇯🇴Jordan0%/0%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group K

Team

Qualify

🇨🇴Colombia53%/32%

98%

🇵🇹Portugal38%/39%

90%

🇨🇩DR Congo8%/21%

57%

🇺🇿Uzbekistan1%/8%

29%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Group L

Team

Qualify

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England92%/6%

100%

🇭🇷Croatia4%/63%

83%

🇬🇭Ghana3%/21%

64%

🇵🇦Panama1%/9%

22%

1st / 2nd shown next to each team · projected, not confirmed

Model accuracy

Model Accuracy — inactive until real results ingestion

Not enough live data

Calibration (Brier / log-loss / RPS, reliability curve) activates once real match results are ingested and scored against pre-match predictions.

Inactive · demo

No results scored yet — nothing to calibrate.

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